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(First an update on the Buddy
Lazier car) For those concerned about the extent of the damage
to the Buddy Lazier car, and rumors it couldn't be repaired, the
repair is progressing nicely, and the damage "wasn't as bad
as it first appeared." All four corners of the car
were "involved" when a "front suspension
mount broke." One of the Byrd Brothers Panther Racing
officials was kind enough to let me enter their garage and get
the picture of them working on the front of the car. I have
heard stories of an "installation lap" request, but so
far I don't know whether that has been approved or not. Since
the car has been repaired and not replaced, it will be allowed
to start in it's qualified position. There is one thing about
the Lazier situation I don't like, they did not/are not going to
change the engine. That engine came to what amounts to a sudden
stop, and may have run "backwards," engines that do
that, often fail. IMHO, that engine should have been replaced,
but it isn't my "dime."
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Also, before handicapping the
field, there is another bit of news, while walking the garage
area this morning I saw them changing an engine in the Dario
Franchitti car. "I hope that isn't the race car" I
said to one of the mechanics, only to get a nod to the affirmative.
Dario was only 15th fastest yesterday, slowest of the four AGR
cars, perhaps that was the reason.
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***
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Before "rating" the
field, lets look at the one "constant" (?) that
drivers have to contend with, the inconsistency of the speedway
itself, and how it is so dependent upon the weather, wind and
cloud cover at any given time. There is almost no chance that a
setup that was perfect during the Carb Day runs will be
repeatable Sunday morning. Last year the cars of Fernandez
Racing dominated the speed charts on almost every day but Pole
Day, and were race day also-ran's. Last year, going into the 500
after two rain showers, I doubt you would have found too many
people not related to the RLR team willing to bet serious money
that Buddy Rice would win the 500. That said, let's look at the
Carb Day results, there are some trends that can't be ignored.
First there are 14 Honda
powered cars in the 2005 Indy 500 field, 13 of those ran in the
top 17 positions Friday! The other Honda was that of rookie Jeff
Bucknum(24th), and he was fastest of the nine that were unable
to post a 220-mph lap. All of those, with the exception of the
crash damaged Buddy Lazier car, were Toyota
powered.
Of the other four cars in the
top 17 positions, two were Chevy's and the other two were the
MTP cars of Castroneves and Hornish. While the 500 is difficult
to handicap, is easy to see that unless there is one really big
crash, or several smaller multi-car crashes, no Toyota powered
car other then the Penske duo will win Sunday. A driver might be
able to go a long way on "handles," but when it comes
to crunch time, an Indy 500 winner will either have to pass
someone, or have the speed to hold the contenders back.
That brings us to the Chevy
situation, and I'm going on past performance recollections and
perceptions here. There is no question that there is enough raw
speed in the Chevy, if you take driver stubbornness and poor
decisions out of the mix, the Chevy could have been a series
winner already this year. That said, there are two other issues
that bother me, of the three engines, the Chevy is the closest
to being a "gas guzzler," and here is where
"perception" enders the mix, I feel that the engine
"lays down" late in the races, loses some of the power
potential it has, and is also more prone to fail than the Honda
or Toyota. Before the Carb Day crash, level-headed Buddy Lazier
appeared to be Chevy's best hope, starting in an untested car, I
can't say that any longer. Tomas Scheckter is an Indy marvel,
one of the select few that take to the place instantly, were it
not for his propensity for making "questionable"
decisions, Tomas would be a yearly "lock." Here is a
look at Sunday's contenders.
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***
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The
Weatherman
It wouldn't be Indy without this guy, and there is a
"scattered shower chance all day Sunday, beginning at race
time.
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Marlboro Team Penske
They may not have the Honda speed and power, but they do have
more IMS track time and expertise than anyone else, even AJ
Foyt. Helio Castroneves is a two time winner, and the team has
won three of the past four 500's. Sam Hornish signed with Team
Penske because of his desire to win this race, perhaps he should
have knocked on the door of a Honda team. To me, MTP is the only
Toyota team that has a chance of winning Sunday, but it is a
very slim one. That said, any time MTP is in an Indy 500, you
have to look at them as a potential winner. Somewhere close to
400 miles into the race, the track will get slick, and all that
Honda horsepower will become a detriment instead of an
asset.
Here is something to be
thankful for. MTP came to IndyCar in the Chevy dominated era,
and became a Toyota team later. We should all be happy they
don't have Honda's (they were a Honda CART team), because if
they had them, few other teams would be able to keep up with
them.
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Andretti Green Racing
On paper this team has to win Sunday, but the Indy 500 isn't
raced on paper. Tony Kanaan is the odds-on
"non-Penske" favorite, but TK has had his pit road
problems in almost every race. In the Indy 500, teams will have
to pit a minimum of seven times, and most likely closer to nine,
the team better have the fueling rig worked out by
now. Dan Wheldon has won
every race this season but the opener at Homestead, mostly
because of being at the right place at the right time, Wheldon
is blindly fast and brave, one of my five most likely to win.
Dario Franchitti is a
puzzlement to me, at anywhere but the fastest tracks, street,
road or oval, he is my "go-to" guy. IMS is a road
racers track, Dario should excel here, but he hasn't yet, I
don't think he will tomorrow either.
Now Bryan Herta could surprise
though, one of those road racers, and a thinker as well, Herta
finished tenth for Foyt in 1994, and stalled the engine twice on
pit road. If there is a surprise winner, it could be Herta.
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Rahal Letterman Racing
Everyone is talking about Danica Patrick,
and can she win the Indy 500? Sure she can, the question is will
she, and no, not this year, not in my eyes anyway. That isn't to
say she won't be a contender though, and if she can run the
distance in contention and on the lead lap. If she can, she will
carry the race and IndyCar Series to a TV ratings boost that
might make FOX/NASCAR and Lowe's Motor Speedway wish the Indy
500 still started an hour earlier. Where I see Danica getting in
trouble is with the changing IMS conditions. It's one thing to
"win" practice every day, when the car is easily
adjustable, and there is plenty of "conference" time
available to decide how to cope with the setup changes. But when
you have little to adjust, and you have to do it on the fly, you
need a veteran's feedback. Danica will win this year, but no
yet, or so I think. Kenny Brack replaced Buddy Rice and set the
best "Q" speed of the month, Brack is fit, but is he
race fit? He has what I feel is the combination to have Sunday,
a Panoz Honda, Kenny doesn't make my top-five possible winner's
list. While I think Brack comes up short, Vitor
Meira can win, the most likely to repeat for RLR in my opinion,
and to give John Menard the Indy win he always wanted.
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Fernandez (whatever/whoever)
Racing Two of these drivers make my list of the five
most likely to win, Scott Sharp and Adrian Fernandez. I truly
think this is Sharp's race to lose, and he's done that before.
Fernandez has been one of my two "dark horse" choices
since he teamed with Mo Nunn.
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Panther Racing/Byrd
Brother's To me this team has one chance, Buddy Lazier,
and the Saturday crash has put that win possibility in jeopardy.
Tomas Scheckter keeps himself from winning and has only one win
to show for his IndyCar career because of that. It would be a
big stretch for him to exorcise all his demon's long enough to
win Sunday.
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In summation, my "pick
five for the race is," and in this order, Sharp, Wheldon, Fernandez,
Meira and Lazier.
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