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| Kyle Busch wins at Bristol, then bites the hand that fed him, saying CoT's suck... |
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My
take is that the CoT cars drove and performed exactly like the cars used
to before aero-dependency, and Brat Busch just got a taste of what
racing used to be like and will be again. He better get used to it. I
think the CoT debut was a qualified success, had it not been for the
splitter becoming a tire slitter, "qualified," would have read
as "resounding." Here are the race results...
This will be
the last of my top 35 lock-in/lock-out rants, at least NASCAR will begin
scripting race fields based on Currant results, now it is a matter of
"it is what it is," hopefully they'll see the light, listen to
all the complaints and give this crap up next season. Let’s get to the
usual charts. |
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As
I have done in the past, the first chart shows those owners/drivers out
of the blessed lock-in going into this season. The only difference this
time is that the names you now see WILL be locked-into the Martinsville
race, if they haven't won the war; at least they have won the first
skirmish. |
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| The list above was seven drivers deep after Daytona, and now only three owner/drivers have managed to break into anointed territory, locked into a race for the first time this season. Two of those teams were new efforts, the Bobby Ginn/Joe Nemechek #13 and the Gene Haas/Johnny Sauter #70, coincidently; both drivers missed the Bristol race but had run so well in the other four that they had built up a big enough points cushion to survive the DNQ. The Bobby Ginn/Sterling Marlin car raced in 2006, but fell out of the top-35 during the last two races. The Michael Waltrip/Dale Jarrett combo ran all five 2007 races, Jarrett using a past champion's provisional four times to make races, Waltrip/Jarrett are now out of a locked in position and are now 39th. THERE ARE NOW NO TOYOTA TEAMS LOCKED IN FOR THE MARTINSVILLE RACE, although Jarrett has two "past champs" remaining. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| My 2nd chart shows owner/drivers locked-in going into this season that were in jeopardy of a 2007 fall-out. As with the above chart, these results are now final. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Now it gets ugly, these are the teams new to NASCAR this season that have been locked out all season and will continue to be. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| The McClure/Finch "buy-out" appears to be paying dividends now that Burton has made another race, they are just a good result away from a lock-in. Owner/drivers shown in red type appear destined to have to make all 2007 races on speed. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| NASCAR Ushers in the CoT era at Bristol this weekend... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Depending on viewpoints, agendas,
likes, dislikes, resistance to change, reluctance to give up
perceived advantages or what-all, the weekend of the CoT debut
is finally here, like it or not. Teams have tested CoT's at
every conceivable and non-active Nextel Cup venue for close to a
year now, they even have run a few at Homestead, FL and Daytona,
and a couple of weeks ago tested at Bristol for a little more
than a day. While you might think the Bristol test results
should give us a hint of what to expect this weekend, many of
the best posted speeds came early, and then teams fell into a
drivability/raceability mode.
For the past week there has been claims that the struggling Toyota teams have been so far off the pace because they were putting all their egg's in the CoT basket. If that's the case, Toyota teams better have been sandbagging the Bristol test, because they were off-pace at best, awful at worst I like the CoT, and can't wait for the promise of aero-equality, reduction of the dreaded aero push and the birth of the-car-for-all-tracks, but don't expect to see much of that this weekend. Bristol is probably the least aero-dependent track on the Nextel Cup Circuit, and possibly the most crash-challenging for the CoT concept. Speeds at Bristol are relatively high considering the size of the track, and contact is a constant. There are two crash-critical areas of a CoT, as you would expect, the nose and tail of the car, where the aero appendages are mounted, the "splitter" at the front, the wing at the back. Crash damaged cars can race without the "splitter," but not without the wing, a NASCAR issued item. While the splitter, made of a rubber composite material, is a durable and virtually break-proof item, the nose pieces that support the "adjusters," and the turnbuckles themselves aren't. The splitter has to be set to run suspended above the track surface and never in contact, damage to the mounting/adjusting system could either cause the splitter to drag on the track, causing the front of the car to lose grip, or twist it "nose-up," causing handling difficulties as well. The rear wing is mounted to what is the trunk deck in a passenger car, the wing should be pretty safe and clear unless the car is either hit hard from behind, or is backed into the wall. As with the present day car, if the CoT is backed into the fence or SAFER rear-window deep, there probably isn't a repair for that kind of damage anyway, and the car would be done for the day. What teams ARE worried about is wing replacement IF feasible, and how soon they can get a replacement from NASCAR. I expect racks of replacements, easily available, but if a wing is damaged, the trunk deck mounting position will be compromised as well. I expect the quick-fix for wing replacement will either be entire trunk lid replacement, or the teams will make quick/change/mount trunk segments that will be easily attached and further mounted with rhino-patch material. Whenever a major concept change occurs, the biggest thing teams fear is the "ugly unknowns" (ugknowns) that will crop up that they don't expect and aren't prepared for. Here is a list of possible ugknown's I forecast going into Bristol: 1. Cooling issues, it will be very warm at Bristol, the CoT relies on an under-the-splitter air inlet system to augment radiator cooling. I expect that although the inlet is screened off, it will clog with scrubbed off rubber "marbles" and cause the cars to overheat. 2. Splitter "marbles," the splitter won't wear out or break, When rubbed against the track the rubber composite will melt /rub off in pellets, mixing with tire residue and causing grip issues late in the race. We could see a lot of the jet driers or even sweepers. 3. Inability of the newly returned "bump stops" to keep the splitter off the track, causing teams to return to the "big springs" setups of 15 years ago. 4. Teams not able to quickly replace damaged rear wings, and in a few instances withdraw cars from the race or lose far more laps than they would slapping another spoiler on the car. 5. The Cot has a 4-inch wider wheel to wheel width, more including fender clearance, I see more contact than ever. On the positive side, I see the loss of big team aero-tweak advantages, and a more level playing field between the locked-in cars and those having to make shows on speed. Where locked-in teams would take "race-well" cars to the track and those that had to make the race on speed would bring aero-slick, "go-fast" cars, the CoT "box" templates negate that concept. While we might see more "equality at Darlington, Loudon or Phoenix, we'll see some today as well. We'll know in a matter of hours. To me, the CoT HAS to be better, the cars of the past were too aero dependent, with the car far more important than the person that drove it. If the CoT puts the driver back in the equation, we can get back to racing rather than positioning. |
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| Jimmie Johnson wins at Atlanta, driving the company car in the company race, wins the last two NextCup races back to back... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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For
the 2nd week in a row nothing happened to the Lowes sponsored
#48 Hendrick Racing Chevy that the team couldn't overcome, and
the dominant car won the race. This is the last "Car's of
Yesteryear" (present day cars) race before NASCAR ushers in
the CoT era at Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend. On Sunday
the much anticipated CoT becomes the CoRN, or "Car of Right
Now." The CoRN will again be used the following weekend at
Martinsville, VA.
This will also be the last weekend that the "anointed faithful" that had locked in top-35 starting spots from the 2006 owners standings will be able to reap the benefits of past accomplishments. Beginning with the Martinsville race the top-35 "gift" will be bestowed on teams based on a what-have you-done-for-us-lately pecking order. The biggest gift of all may be bestowed on Dale Jarrett, who because of poor results, has dropped several positions per week in the owners standings, while using past champion's provisional status to make EVERY 2007 race. While it has been a given that Jarrett would make every field via the "PCP" and never even attempt to qualify faster than a snail's pace, no one could have expected he would race that poorly, and is an early Bristol departure away of missing the top-35 going into Martinsville. At that point Jarrett would be forced to use his 6th and final PCP and be in jeopardy of missing races due to lack of speed like the other Toyota teams. Also soon to be in qualifying limbo will be the Bill Davis Racing/Dave Blaney Toyota effort. Blaney has been a lock-in for the first four races, but crashes, engine failures and a poor result have left him 39th on the 2007 owners points standings. While only 42 points out of 35 and a lock-in for Martinsville, Blaney would also have to leapfrog past the struggling Wood Brothers/Kenny Schrader effort, the Ray Evernham/Kasey Kahne car and the DEI/Paul Menard entry and displace several teams holding top-35 positions not eager to give them up. Before getting to my chart updates, here's the link to the current 2007 owners points standings. |
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| As always, the first chart posted will be the one that shows owners/drivers not in top-35 locked in positions going into this season that have run well enough to at least contend for the first 2007 lock-in. After Daytona this list had eight combo's listed, and is now down to just four, with Jarrett's survival in doubt (yellow type). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| The 2nd chart shows owner/driver combo's that started the 2007 season as lock-in's and have fallen out of grace. While the Evernham/Kahne #9 (shown in green type) will in all likelihood get a lock-in with a good result or through the bad luck of others, the remaining cars on the list appear to have fallen too far behind. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| While the first chart gets shorter every week, the one below, showing teams that started the season having to qualify on speed, does as well, but for another reason. Two teams that have tried two make every race have now given up on what has become a costly and futile effort. The first to go was the #72 Barney Mullet/Brandon Whitt effort, bound for the Busch Series. Thursday it was announced that the #34 Brad Jenkins/Kevin Lepage entry would only attempt to make selective attempts as the team concentrates on the #37 Dodge John Andretti drives. On the list below there is probably only the DEI/Paul Menard #15 with any post-Bristol lock-in possibility, those shown in white type aren't mathematically eliminated from a lock-in, while those in red type are. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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