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Depending on viewpoints, agendas,
likes, dislikes, resistance to change, reluctance to give up
perceived advantages or what-all, the weekend of the CoT debut
is finally here, like it or not. Teams have tested CoT's at
every conceivable and non-active Nextel Cup venue for close to a
year now, they even have run a few at Homestead, FL and Daytona,
and a couple of weeks ago tested at Bristol for a little more
than a day. While you might think the Bristol test results
should give us a hint of what to expect this weekend, many of
the best posted speeds came early, and then teams fell into a
drivability/raceability mode.
For the past week there has
been claims that the struggling Toyota teams have been so far
off the pace because they were putting all their egg's in the
CoT basket. If that's the case, Toyota teams better have been
sandbagging the Bristol test, because they were off-pace at
best, awful at worst
I like the CoT, and can't wait
for the promise of aero-equality, reduction of the dreaded aero
push and the birth of the-car-for-all-tracks, but don't expect
to see much of that this weekend. Bristol is probably the least
aero-dependent track on the Nextel Cup Circuit, and possibly the
most crash-challenging for the CoT concept. Speeds at Bristol
are relatively high considering the size of the track, and
contact is a constant. There are two crash-critical areas of a
CoT, as you would expect, the nose and tail of the car, where
the aero appendages are mounted, the "splitter" at the
front, the wing at the back. Crash damaged cars can race without
the "splitter," but not without the wing, a NASCAR
issued item. While the splitter, made of a rubber composite material,
is a durable and virtually break-proof item, the nose pieces
that support the "adjusters," and the turnbuckles
themselves aren't. The splitter has to be set to run suspended
above the track surface and never in contact, damage to the
mounting/adjusting system could either cause the splitter to
drag on the track, causing the front of the car to lose grip, or
twist it "nose-up," causing handling difficulties as
well.
The rear wing is mounted to
what is the trunk deck in a passenger car, the wing should be
pretty safe and clear unless the car is either hit hard from
behind, or is backed into the wall.
As with the present day car, if
the CoT is backed into the fence or SAFER rear-window deep,
there probably isn't a repair for that kind of damage anyway,
and the car would be done for the day. What teams ARE worried
about is wing replacement IF feasible, and how soon they can get
a replacement from NASCAR. I expect racks of replacements,
easily available, but if a wing is damaged, the trunk deck
mounting position will be compromised as well. I expect the
quick-fix for wing replacement will either be entire trunk lid
replacement, or the teams will make quick/change/mount trunk
segments that will be easily attached and further mounted with
rhino-patch material.
Whenever a major concept change
occurs, the biggest thing teams fear is the "ugly unknowns"
(ugknowns) that will crop up that they don't expect and aren't
prepared for. Here is a list of possible ugknown's I forecast
going into Bristol:
1. Cooling issues, it will be
very warm at Bristol, the CoT relies on an under-the-splitter
air inlet system to augment radiator cooling. I expect that
although the inlet is screened off, it will clog with scrubbed
off rubber "marbles" and cause the cars to overheat.
2. Splitter
"marbles," the splitter won't wear out or break, When
rubbed against the track the rubber composite will melt /rub off
in pellets, mixing with tire residue and causing grip issues
late in the race. We could see a lot of the jet driers or even
sweepers.
3. Inability of the newly
returned "bump stops" to keep the splitter off the
track, causing teams to return to the "big springs"
setups of 15 years ago.
4. Teams not able to quickly
replace damaged rear wings, and in a few instances withdraw cars
from the race or lose far more laps than they would slapping
another spoiler on the car.
5. The Cot has a 4-inch wider
wheel to wheel width, more including fender clearance, I see
more contact than ever.
On the positive side, I see the
loss of big team aero-tweak advantages, and a more level playing
field between the locked-in cars and those having to make shows
on speed. Where locked-in teams would take "race-well"
cars to the track and those that had to make the race on speed
would bring aero-slick, "go-fast" cars, the CoT
"box" templates negate that concept. While we might
see more "equality at Darlington, Loudon or Phoenix, we'll
see some today as well. We'll know in a matter of hours. To me,
the CoT HAS to be better, the cars of the past were too aero
dependent, with the car far more important than the person that
drove it. If the CoT puts the driver back in the equation, we
can get back to racing rather than positioning.
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For
the 2nd week in a row nothing happened to the Lowes sponsored
#48 Hendrick Racing Chevy that the team couldn't overcome, and
the dominant car won the race. This is the last "Car's of
Yesteryear" (present day cars) race before NASCAR ushers in
the CoT era at Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend. On Sunday
the much anticipated CoT becomes the CoRN, or "Car of Right
Now." The CoRN will again be used the following weekend at
Martinsville, VA.
This
will also be the last weekend that the "anointed
faithful" that had locked in top-35 starting spots from the
2006 owners standings will be able to reap the benefits of past
accomplishments. Beginning with the Martinsville race the top-35
"gift" will be bestowed on teams based on a what-have
you-done-for-us-lately pecking order.
The
biggest gift of all may be bestowed on Dale Jarrett, who because
of poor results, has dropped several positions per week in the
owners standings, while using past champion's provisional status
to make EVERY 2007 race. While it has been a given that Jarrett
would make every field via the "PCP" and never even
attempt to qualify faster than a snail's pace, no one could have
expected he would race that poorly, and is an early Bristol
departure away of missing the top-35 going into Martinsville. At
that point Jarrett would be forced to use his 6th and final PCP
and be in jeopardy of missing races due to lack of speed like
the other Toyota teams. Also soon to be in qualifying limbo will
be the Bill Davis Racing/Dave Blaney Toyota effort. Blaney has
been a lock-in for the first four races, but crashes, engine
failures and a poor result have left him 39th on the 2007 owners
points standings. While only 42 points out of 35 and a lock-in
for Martinsville, Blaney would also have to leapfrog past the
struggling Wood Brothers/Kenny Schrader effort, the Ray
Evernham/Kasey Kahne car and the DEI/Paul Menard entry and
displace several teams holding top-35 positions not eager to
give them up.
Before getting to my chart
updates, here's the link
to the current 2007 owners points standings.
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